基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

Nonlinear modal analysis via non‐parametric machine learning tools

Modal analysis is an important tool in the structural dynamics community; it is widely utilised to understand and investigate the dynamical characteristics of linear structures. Many methods have been proposed in recent years regarding the extension to nonlinear analysis, such as nonlinear normal modes or the method of normal forms, with the main objective being to formulate a mathematical model of a nonlinear dynamical structure based on observations of input/output data from the dynamical system. In fact, for the majority of structures where the effect of nonlinearity becomes significant, nonlinear modal analysis is a necessity. The objective of the current paper is to demonstrate a machine learning approach to output‐only nonlinear modal decomposition using kernel independent component analysis and locally linear‐embedding analysis. The key element is to demonstrate a pattern recognition approach which exploits the idea of independence of principal components from the linear theory by learning the nonlinear manifold between the variables. In this work, the importance of output‐only modal analysis via “blind source” separation tools is highlighted as the excitation input/force is not needed and the method can be implemented directly via experimental data signals without worrying about the presence or not of specific nonlinearities in the structure.     

枪管结构对固有频率的影响

为了研究枪管结构对枪管固有频率的影响,针对枪管尤其是狙击枪管设计中约束长度、枪管外形、膛口装置以及膛线等不同结构,建立了相应的三维模型。采用以六面体为主的网格对枪管进行了网格划分,采用有限元方法对枪管进行了模态分析。计算获得了不同结构枪管的固有频率; 通过比较,得到了不同枪管结构对固有频率的影响。分析结果表明:枪管尾部螺纹长度越长,枪口振动幅度越低; 相同质量枪管,锥形外形枪管刚度最好; 加装膛口装置对枪管刚度和振动特性有不利影响。     

轻量级电驱水下机械臂设计与运动学分析

设计了一款四功能水下机械臂，并对驱动关节进行了模块化设计和密封测试。为了保证水下机械臂的可靠性，在水下机械臂水下测试前，进行了强度校核和模态分析。为了验证水下机械臂的性能，通过 Ｄ- Ｈ法建立了其运动学模型，在此基础上分别进行了正、逆运动学分析。此外还采用蒙特卡洛法，在正运动学分析的基础上研究了工作空间特点。研究结果将为进一步的运动控制提供有益的帮助。     

矿用直线振动筛结构故障分析

针对煤矿选煤厂直线振动筛工作过程中出现的结构故障问题,采用有限元仿真与现场测试结合的方法对振动筛出现故障的原因进行了分析研究。介绍了振动筛的主要结构及常见故障,并以某矿选煤厂发生大梁断裂的振动筛为例,对该振动筛进行三维建模和有限元模态分析,分析结果表明:随着模态阶次的增加,振型的变化逐渐由移动转为结构本身的扭曲变形。在该振动筛空载工作状态下,选用本质安全型便携式测振记录仪进行振动测试并处理测试信号,得到该振动筛的工作频率。结合模态分析结果和实际测试结果,判断出空载时频繁运行振动筛是造成其大梁断裂的主要原因。根据故障原因给出维护建议:应当尽量避免振动筛在空载或物料较少的状态下长时间运行;在振动筛投入使用前,应预先了解振动筛的工作状态及可能存在的薄弱环节,尽可能避免结构故障,保证振动筛可靠运行。     

车轮多边形磨耗统计规律及关键影响因素分析

针对列车车轮多边形磨耗问题广泛存在于轨道交通运输领域,会导致车辆/轨道系统产生高频的振动冲击,严重影响车辆和轨道系统零部件的使用寿命,危及行车安全这一问题,调查了大量车轮的多边形磨耗情况并进行统计分析,掌握了高速列车车轮多边形磨耗问题的现状和特点。以18～20阶多边形磨耗车辆为例,通过理论研究和试验分析(试验分析包括车辆系统振动特性测试和转向架模态特性测试),对车轮多边形磨耗的根本原因及诱导因素进行研究。研究发现,轮轨系统在580 Hz频率附近存在固有模态是导致车辆发生18～20阶多边形磨耗的根本原因,轮轨表面的各种不平顺能激发或者加剧轮轨系统在580 Hz频率附近的模态共振,从而诱发车轮多边形磨耗的产生。该结果可为高速列车车轮多边形磨耗问题的防止和进一步研究提供参考。     

基于ANSYS Workbench柱塞泵主轴动、静态性能分析

主轴是液压泵的重要零件之一,起着传递扭矩的作用,对液压泵的性能有着重要的影响。运用ANSYS Workbench对某型开式回路斜盘式柱塞变量泵的主轴进行动、静态性能分析,主要对柱塞泵主轴进行静力分析和模态分析,得到相关参数,并对主轴进行了一定的优化。为该类主轴的设计和优化提供一定的参考。     

Mythical systems: mathematic and logical theory

The process of elaboration of the symbolic universe leads to exciting insights regarding the search for human emotional security. The symbols end up as explanatory axes of universal reality and on them are constructed myths that form a superstructure for belief systems. Human society is a multi-level system with a material structure (society), an ideological superstructure (belief systems, values, etc.) and a super superstructure with two parts: mythical (origin and justification) and utopic (final goal). All mythical belief systems have a numinous-religious nature.     

Correspondence between colour and odour for women in pre‐menopause and post‐menopause

Cross‐modal correspondences in the human sensory systems often appear for different levels of sensory inputs, such as colour and odour. However, whether there is hormonal modification of such colour‐odour correspondence has remained unclear. Here, we experimentally investigated the influence of hormonal changes in menopausal women by conducting evaluations of colour and odour impressions, matching tasks between colour and odour, and odor identification tasks, comparing two groups of women: premenopausal and postmenopausal. The results showed that both premenopausal and postmenopausal women had similar impressions and images of colours for odors, while postmenopausal women had significantly lower abilities of odor identification than premenopausal women. This suggested that the degree of conviction about an odor's identification might slightly affect the subjects’ impressions of odors and their corresponding colour choices. Menopause might not directly affect cognitive aspects regarding colour or odor, but might instead affect their perceptions.     

基于HHT-RDT算法的高拱坝泄流结构工作模态识别方法

根据高拱坝泄流结构自身的工作特点,为准确辨识环境激励下的结构模态参数特征,提出了一种基于改进的HHT-RDT算法的高拱坝泄流结构工作模态识别方法。以某高拱坝原型振动响应测试资料为基础,利用改进的小波阈值-EMD算法对原始信号进行降噪预处理,滤除干扰噪声的同时保留有效特征信息;采用HHT-RDT算法识别高拱坝泄流结构的工作模态参数,运用带通滤波对振动响应信号的EMD过程进行控制得到结构的各阶模态分量,利用RDT法提取各阶模态分量的自由衰减信息,识别出高拱坝泄流结构系统的固有频率及阻尼比。工程实例表明,该方法避免了复杂系统定阶过程,有效提高结构振动响应工作模态识别精度,为辨识高拱坝泄流结构的工作模态参数提供捷径。